Tropical Weather Outlook

Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 00:56:35 GMT

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... As of 9:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Ian was located near 27.3, -81.6 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Ian Update Statement

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 00:56:35 GMT

Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022


885 
WTNT64 KNHC 290056
TCUAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
900 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE...
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC 
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...

A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower 
located near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 55 
mph (89 km/h) with a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

The automated station at the Punta Gorda Airport measured a gust of 
109 mph (175 km/h) just before 8 PM EDT.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky


Hurricane Ian Graphics

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 23:53:17 GMT

Hurricane Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 23:53:17 GMT

Hurricane Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:22:47 GMT

Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 25A

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 23:52:35 GMT

Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022


000
WTNT34 KNHC 282352
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
 
...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC 
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 81.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
* Florida Bay
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located near
latitude 27.2 North, longitude 81.7 West.  Ian is moving toward the
north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).  On the forecast track, the
center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and
Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late
Thursday.  Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach
the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Further weakening is expected
for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength 
when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it 
approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina 
coasts on Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles 
(280 km). A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind 
tower near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph 
(87 km/h) with a gust to 91 mph (146 km/h). A private weather 
station in Joshua recently measured a wind gust to 89 mph (143 
km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Dry Tortugas and Florida Keys...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ian.
Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area
now and will slowly spread northeastward through the night.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.
 
Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
 
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches,
with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with
local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina
 
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, is expected to continue
across central Florida.  Widespread considerable flash, urban, and
river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina later this week
through the weekend.  Locally considerable flash flooding, urban,
and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the
southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions
of southern Mid-Atlantic.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening into tonight
across east central Florida.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci/D. Zelinsky
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 23:16:31 GMT


745
ABNT20 KNHC 282316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ian, located inland over southwestern Florida and on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:49:29 GMT

Hurricane Ian Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:49:29 GMT

Local Statement for Miami, FL

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:39:47 GMT

Issued at 639 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:16:31 GMT

Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:08:18 GMT

Issued at 608 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Key West, FL

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:07:53 GMT

Issued at 607 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:56:07 GMT

Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:56:07 GMT

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:38:41 GMT

Issued at 538 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:36:24 GMT

Issued at 536 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:30:57 GMT

Issued at 530 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 /430 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:22:43 GMT

Issued at 522 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Columbia, SC

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:19:34 GMT

Issued at 519 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:18:51 GMT

Issued at 518 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:58:32 GMT

Hurricane Ian Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:58:32 GMT

Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 25

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:58:28 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022


000
WTNT44 KNHC 282058
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft provided the last
fix on Ian just before the hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa,
Florida, with the landfall time near at 305 pm EDT.  The
minimum pressure had risen to about 940 mb at landfall, suggesting
that the winds had come down slightly, and the landfall intensity
was estimated near 130 kt.  While there hasn't been much in situ
data recently, satellite images show that the eye has become more
cloud filled, and Tampa Doppler radar data is indicating a gradual
reduction in winds.  The initial intensity is set to 120 kt on this
advisory.
 
Further weakening is forecast while Ian moves over central Florida
during the next day and emerges into the western Atlantic later on
Thursday.  While there is a lot of vertical wind shear in the
environment there, a favorable trough interaction from a trough in
the southern United States is expected to counteract the shear,
resulting in Ian staying a strong tropical storm through landfall 
on the southeast U.S. coast.  Little change was made to the 
intensity forecast, which is near or somewhat above the consensus 
guidance.
 
The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 8 kt.  The
aforementioned trough is likely to cause Ian to turn northward over
the western Atlantic and to the north-northwest by the weekend.
Model guidance is just a bit faster to the north-northeast than the
last cycle, and the new forecast is nudged in that direction.  The 
trough will probably cause Ian to transition to an extratropical
cyclone in a few days over the southeastern United States, and this
new forecast reflects this likelihood.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest
Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including
Charlotte Harbor.
 
2. Catastrophic wind damage is occurring along the southwestern
coast of Florida in areas near the eyewall of Ian. Hurricane-force
winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland to central
Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane
conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast
overnight through early Thursday.
 
3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through
Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week
and this weekend.  Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic
flooding, with major to record river flooding, are expected to
continue across portions of central Florida with considerable
flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina.
 
4.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday
and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 26.9N  82.0W  120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/0600Z 27.8N  81.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1800Z 28.8N  81.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  30/0600Z 30.0N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  30/1800Z 31.9N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  01/0600Z 34.0N  81.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/1800Z 36.0N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:58:04 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022


000
FONT14 KNHC 282057
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120   
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  21(31)   X(31)   X(31)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  22(32)   X(32)   X(32)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)  12(15)   8(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  15(20)   9(29)   X(29)   X(29)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)  15(19)  16(35)   X(35)   X(35)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   4( 4)  10(14)  31(45)   9(54)   X(54)   X(54)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  2   5( 7)  13(20)  30(50)   8(58)   X(58)   X(58)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   5(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)  13(22)   X(22)   X(22)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  3   4( 7)   8(15)  19(34)   6(40)   X(40)   X(40)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  4  35(39)  19(58)   9(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   5( 5)  10(15)   4(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  3   9(12)   5(17)   3(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  5  43(48)  20(68)   6(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  1  11(12)  14(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  5  37(42)  13(55)   3(58)   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)
JACKSONVILLE   50  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 32  36(68)   2(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  2   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 70  23(93)   3(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  5  51(56)   5(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  1  30(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 92   5(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
THE VILLAGES   50 13  41(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
THE VILLAGES   64  1   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 48  37(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
ORLANDO FL     64 15  41(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 16  39(55)   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  3  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 96   3(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 17  39(56)   2(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
PATRICK AFB    64  3  33(36)   X(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 95   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
FT PIERCE FL   50  7  16(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
FT PIERCE FL   64  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 87   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
W PALM BEACH   50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34 68   1(69)   X(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 
MIAMI FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34 28   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
MARATHON FL    34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50 83   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
TAMPA FL       64 16   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 52  12(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  5  12(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 25

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:57:30 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022


000
WTNT24 KNHC 282057
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF
CITY...NORTH CAROLINA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO
CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA.
 
THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOWER KEYS
AND THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KEYS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY
* FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* FLORIDA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  82.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  945 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N  82.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  82.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.8N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...360NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N  80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  90NW.
34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N  80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N  81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N  82.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:36:57 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:36:57 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:29:27 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:36:03 GMT

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28 the center of Eleven was located near 16.7, -34.7 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:36:03 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022


000
WTNT31 KNHC 282035
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE 
IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 34.7W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven 
was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 34.7 West. The 
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 
km/h) and a general north to north-northwest motion is forecast over 
the next several days until the system dissipates.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening could occur overnight, but weakening is 
expected to begin by tomorrow with the system dissipating by 
Saturday.  
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 2

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:36:03 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022


000
WTNT41 KNHC 282035
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022

The depression has not become any better organized this afternoon, 
and in fact, the low-level center is now mostly exposed to the west 
of the deepest convective activity, which is relatively meager. 
Satellite estimates are either unchanged or have even decreased a 
little this afternoon, and the latest initial intensity was held at 
30 kt for this advisory. 

Tropical Depression Eleven has been moving to the north-northwest 
this afternoon a bit faster than earlier, estimated at 345/9-kt. A 
low- to mid-level ridge located to the east is steering the storm 
currently, and this ridge will stay put while the weakness 
associated with a large upper-level trough should allow the 
depression to turn northward in the subtropical Atlantic basin. The 
guidance this cycle is a shade further west early on, but actually 
ends up a bit east of the previous track in 48-60 hours. The NHC 
track forecast also was nudged a bit west earlier on, and a bit east 
by the 60 h, in good agreement with the consensus aids. 

The window of favorable upper-level winds is quickly closing, as the 
current 5-10 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to increase to 
over 20 kt in 24 hours. In addition, the depression is embedded in a 
fairly dry mid-level air environment, which is likely playing a role 
in the limited convective activity currently. The latest intensity 
forecast still gives an opportunity for the depression to become a 
short-lived tropical storm during the typical diurnal max in 
convection tonight, but now shows earlier weakening, making the 
system a remnant low in 60-h and dissipated shortly thereafter. This 
intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the consensus 
aids which have also trended downward form earlier today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 16.7N  34.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 18.2N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 20.2N  37.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 22.5N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 25.1N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 28.5N  38.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:36:03 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022


000
FONT11 KNHC 282035
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022               
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:35:33 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022


000
WTNT21 KNHC 282035
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022
2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  34.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  34.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  34.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.2N  35.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N  37.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N  38.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N  39.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.5N  38.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N  34.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

NHC Status Updates