Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:41:20 GMT

Tropical Storm Josephine 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:41:20 GMT

Tropical Storm Josephine 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 09:24:32 GMT

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 15

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:39:49 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020


000
WTNT41 KNHC 150839
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020
 
Josephine continues to produce disorganized bursts of deep 
convection to the north and northeast of the estimated center, 
with little evidence of any banding features.  In spite of the 
shear, the storm is still producing high-level outflow into the 
strong upper-level winds.  The current intensity estimate of 40 kt 
is based on continuity from the previous scatterometer-based 
observations, and an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS.  An Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm 
later this morning, and this should provide a good intensity 
estimate.  Since vertical shear associated with a large 
upper-level trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to become 
quite strong over the next few days, a weakening trend is likely to 
commence in a day or so.  The official forecast is similar to the 
previous NHC prediction.  It is also possible that the system will 
degenerate into an open wave within the next couple of days, as 
shown by the global models.

It is difficult to locate the center at this time, but it is 
believed to be situated near the southwest edge of the main area of 
deep  convection.  This leads to a somewhat uncertain initial 
motion estimate of 300/13 kt.  Josephine or its remnants are likely 
to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest 
of a subtropical high pressure area, and then to turn northwest, 
north, and north-northeast along the periphery of the high.  The 
official track forecast remains close to the NOAA corrected model 
consensus prediction.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts.  However,
interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the
storm has passed north of that area.
 
2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by
to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto
Rico through Monday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 18.9N  58.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 19.6N  60.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 20.7N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 22.0N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 23.4N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 24.9N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 26.5N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 29.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z 33.0N  64.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:39:13 GMT

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSEPHINE LATER THIS MORNING... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Josephine was located near 18.9, -58.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 15

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:39:13 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020


000
WTNT31 KNHC 150839
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
JOSEPHINE LATER THIS MORNING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 58.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 58.4 West.  Josephine is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week.  On the forecast track,  the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through today.  After that, 
Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable 
upper-level winds.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of
1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Isolated minor flooding is
possible in Puerto Rico through Monday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:39:13 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020


000
FONT11 KNHC 150839
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 15

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:38:41 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020


000
WTNT21 KNHC 150838
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  58.4W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  58.4W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  57.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.6N  60.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.7N  62.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N  64.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.4N  66.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.9N  68.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.5N  68.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N  68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 33.0N  64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  58.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Tropical Storm Kyle Graphics

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:34:12 GMT

Tropical Storm Kyle 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:34:12 GMT

Tropical Storm Kyle 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 09:31:38 GMT

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 3

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:32:39 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020


000
WTNT42 KNHC 150832
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020
 
The low-level center of Kyle continues to be exposed to the west of 
the deep convection, as strong westerly shear prevails. Although 
the satellite appearance is not that impressive, the circulation is 
well intact as indicated by a recent ASCAT overpass that reveals 
that the initial intensity remains 40 kt.
 
Kyle is currently moving east-northeast at 18 kt, and away from the 
U.S. coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the 
next couple of days, with a turn to the east and an increase in 
forward speed thereafter as the system remains embedded in the 
mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is little 
changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered 
track guidance. 
 
Only slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 h as the 
cyclone crosses the warm Gulf Stream waters and interacts with an 
upper-level trough, while battling increasing westerly shear. The 
forecast track takes Kyle over much cooler waters starting in about 
24 h, and by that time, the system is expected to begin interacting 
with a frontal boundary to its north. This should initiate an 
extratropical transition that is expected to be complete by 36 h. It 
should be noted that both the FSU GFS-based phase space forecast 
and SHIPS guidance suggest that this transition could be completed 
sooner than indicated. After transition, the extratropical system 
should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical 
low in a little more than 3 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 38.7N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 39.7N  64.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 41.0N  60.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 42.1N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/0600Z 42.8N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  17/1800Z 43.2N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/0600Z 42.9N  40.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Kyle (AT2/AL122020)

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:32:13 GMT

...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Kyle was located near 38.7, -68.0 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Kyle Public Advisory Number 3

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:32:13 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020


000
WTNT32 KNHC 150832
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020
 
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 68.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was
located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 68.0 West.  Kyle is
moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. 
A turn to the east along with an increase in forward speed is 
expected early next week. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. 
Kyle is forecast to become post-tropical on Sunday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 3

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:32:13 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020


000
WTNT22 KNHC 150832
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122020
0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N  68.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N  68.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N  69.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.7N  64.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  60SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.0N  60.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.1N  56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 42.8N  52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 43.2N  46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.9N  40.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N  68.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 

Tropical Storm Kyle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:32:13 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020


000
FONT12 KNHC 150832
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122020               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Sat, 15 Aug 2020 05:03:41 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 150503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several
hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical
Storm Kyle, located offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast of the
United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kyle are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NHC Status Updates