...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... As of 9:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 the center of Ian was located near 27.3, -81.6 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
885 WTNT64 KNHC 290056 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 900 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...9 PM EDT HURRICANE IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower located near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h). The automated station at the Punta Gorda Airport measured a gust of 109 mph (175 km/h) just before 8 PM EDT. SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 81.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES $$ Forecaster Bucci/D. Zelinsky
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 23:53:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:22:47 GMT
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
000 WTNT34 KNHC 282352 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN CONTINUING TO BATTER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 81.7W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River * St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to the Anclote River * Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City * Flamingo to Chokoloskee * Lake Okeechobee * Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet * Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 81.7 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening is expected for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower near Punta Gorda recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust to 91 mph (146 km/h). A private weather station in Joshua recently measured a wind gust to 89 mph (143 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft * Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft * Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft * Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft * Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft * Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft * Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft * St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft * St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft * East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft * South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft * Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft * East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft * Dry Tortugas and Florida Keys...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ian. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning area now and will slowly spread northeastward through the night. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Thursday through late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall: * Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. * Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local maxima up to 30 inches. * Coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches. * Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima of 8 inches across western North Carolina Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding, with major to record flooding along rivers, is expected to continue across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina later this week through the weekend. Locally considerable flash flooding, urban, and river flooding is possible this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions of southern Mid-Atlantic. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening into tonight across east central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci/D. Zelinsky
745 ABNT20 KNHC 282316 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Ian, located inland over southwestern Florida and on Tropical Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde islands. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:49:29 GMT
Issued at 639 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Issued at 616 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Issued at 608 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Issued at 607 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:56:07 GMT
Issued at 538 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
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Issued at 530 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 /430 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/
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Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:58:32 GMT
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
000 WTNT44 KNHC 282058 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft provided the last fix on Ian just before the hurricane made landfall at Cayo Costa, Florida, with the landfall time near at 305 pm EDT. The minimum pressure had risen to about 940 mb at landfall, suggesting that the winds had come down slightly, and the landfall intensity was estimated near 130 kt. While there hasn't been much in situ data recently, satellite images show that the eye has become more cloud filled, and Tampa Doppler radar data is indicating a gradual reduction in winds. The initial intensity is set to 120 kt on this advisory. Further weakening is forecast while Ian moves over central Florida during the next day and emerges into the western Atlantic later on Thursday. While there is a lot of vertical wind shear in the environment there, a favorable trough interaction from a trough in the southern United States is expected to counteract the shear, resulting in Ian staying a strong tropical storm through landfall on the southeast U.S. coast. Little change was made to the intensity forecast, which is near or somewhat above the consensus guidance. The hurricane is moving to the north-northeast at about 8 kt. The aforementioned trough is likely to cause Ian to turn northward over the western Atlantic and to the north-northwest by the weekend. Model guidance is just a bit faster to the north-northeast than the last cycle, and the new forecast is nudged in that direction. The trough will probably cause Ian to transition to an extratropical cyclone in a few days over the southeastern United States, and this new forecast reflects this likelihood. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is occurring along the southwestern coast of Florida in areas near the eyewall of Ian. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland to central Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight through early Thursday. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to record river flooding, are expected to continue across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. 4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 26.9N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/0600Z 27.8N 81.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 28.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 30.0N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1800Z 31.9N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0600Z 34.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1800Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022
000 FONT14 KNHC 282057 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 21(31) X(31) X(31) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 16(35) X(35) X(35) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 31(45) 9(54) X(54) X(54) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 5( 7) 13(20) 30(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 4( 7) 8(15) 19(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 35(39) 19(58) 9(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) KINGS BAY GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 9(12) 5(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 43(48) 20(68) 6(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) MAYPORT NS FL 50 1 11(12) 14(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 5 37(42) 13(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) JACKSONVILLE 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) JACKSONVILLE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 32 36(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GAINESVILLE FL 50 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 70 23(93) 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) DAYTONA BEACH 50 5 51(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) DAYTONA BEACH 64 1 30(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) THE VILLAGES 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) THE VILLAGES 50 13 41(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) THE VILLAGES 64 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ORLANDO FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 48 37(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) ORLANDO FL 64 15 41(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) COCOA BEACH FL 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 16 39(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) COCOA BEACH FL 64 3 33(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PATRICK AFB 34 96 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 17 39(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) PATRICK AFB 64 3 33(36) X(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) FT PIERCE FL 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) FT PIERCE FL 50 7 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) W PALM BEACH 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 68 1(69) X(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 28 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) TAMPA FL 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CEDAR KEY FL 34 52 12(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 12(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
000 WTNT24 KNHC 282057 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY...NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE LOWER KEYS AND THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * ST. JOHNS RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER * FLAMINGO TO SEBASTIAN INLET * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SURF CITY * FLAMINGO TO CHOKOLOSKEE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET * FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 82.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 82.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 82.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.8N 81.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...360NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 80.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...320NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N 80.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 82.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 20:36:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2022 21:29:27 GMT
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28 the center of Eleven was located near 16.7, -34.7 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022
000 WTNT31 KNHC 282035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 34.7W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 34.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a general north to north-northwest motion is forecast over the next several days until the system dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening could occur overnight, but weakening is expected to begin by tomorrow with the system dissipating by Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
000 WTNT41 KNHC 282035 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112022 500 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022 The depression has not become any better organized this afternoon, and in fact, the low-level center is now mostly exposed to the west of the deepest convective activity, which is relatively meager. Satellite estimates are either unchanged or have even decreased a little this afternoon, and the latest initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory. Tropical Depression Eleven has been moving to the north-northwest this afternoon a bit faster than earlier, estimated at 345/9-kt. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the east is steering the storm currently, and this ridge will stay put while the weakness associated with a large upper-level trough should allow the depression to turn northward in the subtropical Atlantic basin. The guidance this cycle is a shade further west early on, but actually ends up a bit east of the previous track in 48-60 hours. The NHC track forecast also was nudged a bit west earlier on, and a bit east by the 60 h, in good agreement with the consensus aids. The window of favorable upper-level winds is quickly closing, as the current 5-10 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to increase to over 20 kt in 24 hours. In addition, the depression is embedded in a fairly dry mid-level air environment, which is likely playing a role in the limited convective activity currently. The latest intensity forecast still gives an opportunity for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm during the typical diurnal max in convection tonight, but now shows earlier weakening, making the system a remnant low in 60-h and dissipated shortly thereafter. This intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the consensus aids which have also trended downward form earlier today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 16.7N 34.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 18.2N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.5N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 25.1N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 28.5N 38.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
000 FONT11 KNHC 282035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
000 WTNT21 KNHC 282035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112022 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 34.7W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 34.7W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 34.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.2N 35.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 38.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.5N 38.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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