5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:41:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 09:24:32 GMT
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020
000 WTNT41 KNHC 150839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine continues to produce disorganized bursts of deep convection to the north and northeast of the estimated center, with little evidence of any banding features. In spite of the shear, the storm is still producing high-level outflow into the strong upper-level winds. The current intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on continuity from the previous scatterometer-based observations, and an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning, and this should provide a good intensity estimate. Since vertical shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic is forecast to become quite strong over the next few days, a weakening trend is likely to commence in a day or so. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction. It is also possible that the system will degenerate into an open wave within the next couple of days, as shown by the global models. It is difficult to locate the center at this time, but it is believed to be situated near the southwest edge of the main area of deep convection. This leads to a somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area, and then to turn northwest, north, and north-northeast along the periphery of the high. The official track forecast remains close to the NOAA corrected model consensus prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.9N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 20.7N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 26.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSEPHINE LATER THIS MORNING... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Josephine was located near 18.9, -58.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
000 WTNT31 KNHC 150839 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSEPHINE LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 58.4W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 58.4 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through today. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020
000 FONT11 KNHC 150839 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
000 WTNT21 KNHC 150838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 58.4W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 58.4W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.4N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 58.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 08:34:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 09:31:38 GMT
000 WTNT42 KNHC 150832 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The low-level center of Kyle continues to be exposed to the west of the deep convection, as strong westerly shear prevails. Although the satellite appearance is not that impressive, the circulation is well intact as indicated by a recent ASCAT overpass that reveals that the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Kyle is currently moving east-northeast at 18 kt, and away from the U.S. coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with a turn to the east and an increase in forward speed thereafter as the system remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. Only slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 h as the cyclone crosses the warm Gulf Stream waters and interacts with an upper-level trough, while battling increasing westerly shear. The forecast track takes Kyle over much cooler waters starting in about 24 h, and by that time, the system is expected to begin interacting with a frontal boundary to its north. This should initiate an extratropical transition that is expected to be complete by 36 h. It should be noted that both the FSU GFS-based phase space forecast and SHIPS guidance suggest that this transition could be completed sooner than indicated. After transition, the extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 38.7N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 39.7N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 41.0N 60.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 42.1N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z 42.8N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1800Z 43.2N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 42.9N 40.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Kyle was located near 38.7, -68.0 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
000 WTNT32 KNHC 150832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.7N 68.0W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was located near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 68.0 West. Kyle is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn to the east along with an increase in forward speed is expected early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Kyle is forecast to become post-tropical on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
000 WTNT22 KNHC 150832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 68.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 68.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 39.7N 64.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.0N 60.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.1N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 42.8N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 43.2N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.9N 40.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 68.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
000 FONT12 KNHC 150832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
000 ABNT20 KNHC 150503 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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