Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 17:46:59 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191746
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Peter, located several hundred miles east of the northernmost
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Seventeen, located a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

A tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast
to emerge offshore this evening. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form late this week as it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A gale force non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located a few hundred miles south of Newfoundland. This
system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics
by the middle of this week as it moves slowly eastward and then
southeastward over warmer waters across the north-central Atlantic
Ocean. Additional information on this system, including storm
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake

Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 15:00:47 GMT

Tropical Depression Seventeen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 15:00:47 GMT

Tropical Depression Seventeen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 15:28:32 GMT

Tropical Storm Peter Graphics

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:59:32 GMT

Tropical Storm Peter 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:59:32 GMT

Tropical Storm Peter 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 15:22:35 GMT

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 4

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:58:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021


000
WTNT41 KNHC 191458
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
 
Earlier this morning, Peter began to encounter increasing 
southwesterly shear emanating from flow around an upper-level 
trough to its northwest. This shear caused the low-level center of 
the storm to separate from the deep convection and as of now is 
located over 100 n mi from the edge of that band of convection. An 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating 
the cyclone for the past few hours and has provided helpful data on 
the structure and intensity of Peter. Based on the aircraft data, 
tropical-storm-force winds extend at least 100 n mi to the northeast 
of the center, while there are no tropical-storm-force winds in the 
southern semicircle. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on 
aircraft passes through the northeastern quadrant that measured 
peak 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 and 54 kt. 

The initial motion is 290/15 kt. Peter is forecast to continue to 
move in this west-northwestward direction for the next couple of 
days as it is steered to the south of a subtropical ridge. This 
ridge is expected to weaken in a few days which should cause the 
cyclone to turn northwestward. Late in the forecast period a turn to 
the north and possibly northeast is expected to occur as Peter gets 
caught in the flow around a large trough to its north. As mentioned 
in the special advisory discussion a couple hours ago, a shift to 
the west-southwest of the track was required to accommodate a 
initial position adjustment. Some additional southward adjustments 
were made to the official NHC track for this advisory to come into 
better agreement with a blend of the GFS/ECMWF solutions that also 
indicate a shallower system. 

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis suggests about 20 kt of southwesterly 
shear is impacting Peter. Just to its west and northwest, where the 
cyclone is heading, the shear is analyzed as 30 kt or greater. 
Given that Peter is already exhibiting the structure of a highly 
sheared tropical cyclone, some slight weakening is now forecast 
tonight into tomorrow. There is quite a bit of spread in the 
environmental forecast between the GFS and ECMWF beyond day 3, as 
the GFS shows shear increasing to 40 kt, while the ECMWF indicates 
a less hostile environment with 20 kt of shear. Assuming Peter 
survives its interaction with the upper trough to its northwest 
over the next few days, additional weakening is indicated 
due to the ongoing shear. It should be noted that quite a few GFS 
ensemble members open Peter into a trough by the end of the 
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the 
various consensus solutions. However, due to the possibility the 
cyclone may not survive the next few days, the confidence in this 
forecast is lower than normal. 

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico.  However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter 
may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late today 
into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the 
Northern Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 17.6N  56.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 18.3N  58.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 19.2N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 20.2N  63.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.3N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 22.5N  66.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 23.8N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 25.5N  67.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 27.2N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:56:23 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021


000
FONT11 KNHC 191456
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:55:55 GMT

...DISHEVELED PETER HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Peter was located near 17.6, -56.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 4

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:55:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021


000
WTNT31 KNHC 191455
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021
 
...DISHEVELED PETER HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 56.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 56.5 West. Peter is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this 
general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is 
is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected 
to occur by Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Peter 
is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and 
Tuesday.
 
Based on data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, 
maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today. Some 
slight weakening is expected tonight into Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), 
primarily northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on the aircraft data 
is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The outer bands south of the tropical storm could produce
rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts
possible across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including
the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late today through
Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream
flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to
reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 4

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:55:55 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021


000
WTNT21 KNHC 191455
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  56.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  56.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  55.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N  58.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N  60.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.2N  63.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N  64.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N  66.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N  67.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.5N  67.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N  66.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  56.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 

Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 2

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:54:53 GMT

Issued at 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021


000
WTNT42 KNHC 191454
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021

The low-level center of the depression was exposed on visible 
satellite imagery this morning but recently a new burst has formed. 
Since the morning scatterometer passes missed the depression, the 
intensity is held at 30 kt based on consensus T-2.0 values from TAFB 
and SAB. 

The initial motion estimate is 330/12.  The cyclone is forecast to 
move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder 
of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern 
and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward 
from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands.  No significant changes 
were made to the previous NHC forecast track, and the new 
prediction lies near the middle of the tightly clustered track 
models.

Environmental conditions are conducive for strengthening during the 
next day or so, with wind shear forecast to drop off later today.  
Thus, the official forecast calls for strengthening during the next 
24 hours, and is close to the lower half of the intensity guidance 
envelope, near the weaker global models.  This forecast could be 
conservative, since SSTs will be near 27C and mid-level atmospheric 
moisture will be enough to support intensification.  By 36-48 hours, 
the southwesterly shear will increase, which should end the 
opportunity for strengthening, and will likely cause slow weakening. 
The models hold onto this system through the 5 day period, but it is 
possible that the cyclone could become a remnant low in 4-5 days if 
the shear is too much for the system to handle.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 13.2N  28.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 14.7N  30.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 16.7N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 18.9N  33.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 22.7N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 24.0N  37.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 26.3N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 28.3N  41.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake
 

Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:51:23 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021


000
FONT12 KNHC 191451
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021               
1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE                                           

Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172021)

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:50:56 GMT

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY... As of 2:00 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 the center of Seventeen was located near 13.2, -28.8 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 2

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:50:56 GMT

Issued at 200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021


000
WTNT32 KNHC 191450
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
200 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021
 
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 28.8W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 28.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today.  A motion 
toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue 
through Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday.  
By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less 
conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin
a slow weakening trend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Blake
 

Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 2

Sun, 19 Sep 2021 14:50:25 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021


000
WTNT22 KNHC 191450
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  28.8W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N  28.8W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N  28.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.7N  30.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N  32.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N  33.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N  35.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.7N  36.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N  37.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N  39.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N  41.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N  28.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
 
 

NHC Status Updates