Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Epsilon Graphics

Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:52:56 GMT

Tropical Storm Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:52:56 GMT

Tropical Storm Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Oct 2020 09:25:00 GMT

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 5

Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:49:08 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020
 
Epsilon continues to have a non-standard appearance in satellite
imagery this morning.  While an area of convection is near and over
the center, the center is also near the western end of a baroclinic
zone, and that is giving the storm the look of a occluded
extratropical low.  In addition, water vapor and air mass imagery
indicate that an upper-level trough is close to the system in the
southwestern semicircle.  Satellite intensity estimates have not
changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial
intensity is unchanged at  40 kt.  Epsilon remains a large cyclone
with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward
more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle.
 
The center has drifted eastward since the last advisory, with the
initial motion a somewhat uncertain 075/3.  A northward to
northwestward motion is expected to begin shortly as Epsilon
becomes embedded in a large mid-level low over the central
Atlantic.  Later today, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to
the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward
the northwest through about 72 h.  After that time, a deep-layer
trough and associated frontal system moving eastward into the
western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to recurve to the
northeast at an increasing forward speed.  The guidance is in good
agreement with the scenario, and the new forecast track, which has
only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the
various consensus models.  On the forecast track, Epsilon should
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.
 
There are several conflicting factors in the intensity forecast.
First, while the cyclone is expected to move over relatively warm
sea surface temperatures, the oceanic heat content along the
forecast track drops to low levels after 36 h.  Second, while the
overall shear is forecast to be light to moderate through the
forecast period, Epsilon is interacting with the aforementioned
upper-level trough, and the global models suggest it will interact
with another trough around the 72 h point.  These troughs should
provide upper-level divergence to aid strengthening, but also may
feed cool and dry air into the cyclone, which would be a negative
factor.  The intensity guidance continues to show gradual
strengthening despite the negative factors, with the global models
showing fairy low central pressures during the 72-120 h period.
Based on this, the intensity forecast continues to call for Epsilon
to become a hurricane, and the new forecast has only minor tweaks
from the previous forecast.  Extratropical transition will likely
be underway by 120 h, but likely will not finish until after the
end of the forecast period.
 
Key Message:
 
1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week.  While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 25.6N  54.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 26.6N  55.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 27.8N  57.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 28.5N  59.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 29.4N  60.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 30.6N  60.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 31.6N  61.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 33.5N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 38.0N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN

Tropical Storm Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:48:18 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020


000
FONT12 KNHC 200848
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)  22(46)   3(49)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   2(18)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Summary for Tropical Storm Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:47:47 GMT

...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 20 the center of Epsilon was located near 25.6, -54.7 with movement ENE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Epsilon Public Advisory Number 5

Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:47:47 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020


000
WTNT32 KNHC 200847
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020
 
...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general
northwestward motion expected through Thursday.  On the forecast
track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 5

Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:47:47 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020


000
WTNT22 KNHC 200847
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  54.7W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE  60SE  50SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE  60SE 270SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  54.7W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N  55.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.6N  55.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...250NE  90SE  50SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.8N  57.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...270NE 100SE  50SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.5N  59.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...270NE 110SE  60SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.4N  60.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  70NW.
34 KT...210NE 100SE  80SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.6N  60.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 31.6N  61.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.0N  58.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N  54.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Tue, 20 Oct 2020 05:45:15 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 200545
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic several
hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

A trough of low pressure extends southeastward from the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
to a broad low pressure system located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. This system is currently accompanied by
disorganixed shower and thunderstorm activity. The disturbance is
expected to consolidate over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during
the next day or so before moving slowly westward toward the Yucatan
peninsula by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of central and western
Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula through
midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Epsilon are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NHC Status Updates