5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:48:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 21:29:05 GMT
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
000 WTNT43 KNHC 302047 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 Visible satellite imagery shows the exposed center of Rina is well displaced from deep convection, as strong northwesterly shear continues to impact the storm. The intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates. The intensity forecast shows gradual weakening through Sunday. Given Rina's structural trends today, and model simulated IR satellite data over the next couple of days, the forecast shows Rina degenerating into a remnant low Sunday evening. The strong shear as diagnosed by SHIPS is expected to continue impacting Rina and its remnants until the cyclone dissipates early next week. Even if the shear isn't enough to prevent convective reformation, Rina will likely struggle with dry mid-level relative humidities. Rina is now moving northwestward at a slightly faster 12 kt. The storm or its remnant low should continue to track northwestward and then northward along the northern periphery of Philippe for the next couple of days. The new track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.6N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.5N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 25.1N 54.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 27.0N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 29.0N 55.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Blake
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023
000 FONT13 KNHC 302046 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER MAHONEY/BLAKE
...RINA FORECAST TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 30 the center of Rina was located near 22.6, -51.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
000 WTNT33 KNHC 302046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 ...RINA FORECAST TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 51.5W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 51.5 West. Rina is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). The cyclone is expected to continue moving northwestward through Sunday before turning northward on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Rina is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday, then dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Blake
000 WTNT23 KNHC 302046 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 51.5W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 51.5W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 51.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N 53.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.1N 54.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.0N 55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.0N 55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAHONEY/BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:45:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 21:22:57 GMT
000 WTNT42 KNHC 302043 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 Philippe remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Its low-level center has become increasingly separated from the deep convection today. Visible satellite images and and fixes from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the center is farther south and slightly east of our previous estimates. In terms of Philippe's current intensity, there were mixed signals in the aircraft data. The peak 850-mb flight-level winds were only 49 kt, and a center dropsonde indicated no change of the minimum pressure (999 mb) since the previous flight. On the other hand, the SFMR retrievals showed winds of 45-50 kt outside of convection that were visually supported by the flight crew, but a coincident dropsonde reported much lower near-surface wind speeds. Given the conflicting data and less impressive satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The tropical storm has continued to move southwestward today, with an initial motion of 215/4 kt. In the near term, the models suggest Philippe will not move very much and could drift erratically through early Sunday while Tropical Storm Rina passes to its north. Then, there is general agreement that the storm will turn toward the west-northwest and northwest around the western extent of a low- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. While there is still a large spread in the track guidance during the 24-72 h time frame, it is noteworthy that the 12z ECMWF has trended eastward this cycle and shows Philippe passing farther east of the northern Leeward Islands. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly farther south and west early in the forecast due to the center relocation. However, the updated prediction ends up near or slightly east of the previous forecast at 36-72 h, in best agreement with the TVCA simple consensus. By days 4-5, Philippe is forecast to accelerate northward and northeastward between a central Atlantic ridge and a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic. Only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 24-36 h while Philippe contends with moderate to strong northwesterly shear. The upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification in a couple of days or so, which should allow the cyclone to become more vertically aligned and establish an inner core. Thus, more strengthening is forecast at days 2-4 while Philippe moves over the very warm SSTs of the central Atlantic, which is supported by almost all of the intensity guidance. The NHC forecast calls for Philippe to become a hurricane by 60 h with continued strengthening thereafter. The peak intensity was raised to bring the NHC forecast slightly closer to the latest HCCA and IVCN aids at days 4-5, but it is noted that the regional hurricane models are even stronger than the current NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.3N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 16.2N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 16.6N 57.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.4N 58.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.5N 58.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 19.9N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 21.6N 59.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 29.5N 56.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
000 FONT12 KNHC 302043 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
...PHILIPPE STILL SHEARED AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 30 the center of Philippe was located near 16.3, -56.5 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
000 WTNT32 KNHC 302042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023 ...PHILIPPE STILL SHEARED AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 56.5W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 56.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Philippe could become a hurricane early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
000 WTNT22 KNHC 302042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 56.5W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 15SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 56.5W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 56.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.6N 57.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.4N 58.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 58.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.6N 59.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 25.7N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 56.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
000 ABNT20 KNHC 301721 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Blake
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