Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Rina Graphics

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:48:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Rina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:48:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Rina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 21:29:05 GMT

Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 10

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:47:16 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023


000
WTNT43 KNHC 302047
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
Visible satellite imagery shows the exposed center of Rina is well 
displaced from deep convection, as strong northwesterly shear 
continues to impact the storm. The intensity is held at a possibly 
generous 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the subjective 
and objective satellite estimates.
 
The intensity forecast shows gradual weakening through Sunday. Given 
Rina's structural trends today, and model simulated IR satellite 
data over the next couple of days, the forecast shows Rina 
degenerating into a remnant low Sunday evening. The strong shear as 
diagnosed by SHIPS is expected to continue impacting Rina and its 
remnants until the cyclone dissipates early next week. Even if the 
shear isn't enough to prevent convective reformation, Rina will 
likely struggle with dry mid-level relative humidities.
 
Rina is now moving northwestward at a slightly faster 12 kt. The 
storm or its remnant low should continue to track northwestward and 
then northward along the northern periphery of Philippe for the next 
couple of days. The new track forecast is very similar to the 
previous forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 22.6N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 23.5N  53.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 25.1N  54.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/0600Z 27.0N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z 29.0N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Blake
 

Tropical Storm Rina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:46:45 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023


000
FONT13 KNHC 302046
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182023               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAHONEY/BLAKE                                         

Summary for Tropical Storm Rina (AT3/AL182023)

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:46:15 GMT

...RINA FORECAST TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 30 the center of Rina was located near 22.6, -51.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Rina Public Advisory Number 10

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:46:15 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023


000
WTNT33 KNHC 302046
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rina Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
...RINA FORECAST TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 51.5W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rina was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 51.5 West. Rina is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). The cyclone is
expected to continue moving northwestward through Sunday before
turning northward on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Rina
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday, then
dissipate early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Blake
 

Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Advisory Number 10

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:46:15 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023


000
WTNT23 KNHC 302046
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  51.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  51.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  51.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N  53.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.1N  54.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.0N  55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.0N  55.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  51.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY/BLAKE
 
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:45:23 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:45:23 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 21:22:57 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 30

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:43:44 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023


000
WTNT42 KNHC 302043
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
Philippe remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Its low-level center
has become increasingly separated from the deep convection today.
Visible satellite images and and fixes from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate the center is farther south and slightly east of
our previous estimates. In terms of Philippe's current intensity,
there were mixed signals in the aircraft data. The peak 850-mb
flight-level winds were only 49 kt, and a center dropsonde indicated
no change of the minimum pressure (999 mb) since the previous
flight. On the other hand, the SFMR retrievals showed winds of 45-50
kt outside of convection that were visually supported by the flight
crew, but a coincident dropsonde reported much lower near-surface
wind speeds. Given the conflicting data and less impressive
satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.
 
The tropical storm has continued to move southwestward today, with
an initial motion of 215/4 kt. In the near term, the models suggest
Philippe will not move very much and could drift erratically through
early Sunday while Tropical Storm Rina passes to its north. Then,
there is general agreement that the storm will turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest around the western extent of a low- to
mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. While there is still a
large spread in the track guidance during the 24-72 h time frame, it
is noteworthy that the 12z ECMWF has trended eastward this cycle and
shows Philippe passing farther east of the northern Leeward Islands.
The latest NHC track forecast is slightly farther south and west
early in the forecast due to the center relocation. However, the
updated prediction ends up near or slightly east of the previous
forecast at 36-72 h, in best agreement with the TVCA simple
consensus. By days 4-5, Philippe is forecast to accelerate northward
and northeastward between a central Atlantic ridge and a deep-layer
trough over the western Atlantic.
 
Only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 24-36 h while 
Philippe contends with moderate to strong northwesterly shear. The 
upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for 
intensification in a couple of days or so, which should allow the 
cyclone to become more vertically aligned and establish an inner 
core. Thus, more strengthening is forecast at days 2-4 while 
Philippe moves over the very warm SSTs of the central Atlantic, 
which is supported by almost all of the intensity guidance. The NHC 
forecast calls for Philippe to become a hurricane by 60 h with 
continued strengthening thereafter. The peak intensity was raised to 
bring the NHC forecast slightly closer to the latest HCCA and IVCN 
aids at days 4-5, but it is noted that the regional hurricane models 
are even stronger than the current NHC forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 16.3N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 16.2N  56.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 16.6N  57.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 17.4N  58.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 18.5N  58.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 19.9N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 21.6N  59.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 25.7N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 29.5N  56.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:43:13 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023


000
FONT12 KNHC 302043
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:42:43 GMT

...PHILIPPE STILL SHEARED AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 30 the center of Philippe was located near 16.3, -56.5 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 30

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:42:43 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023


000
WTNT32 KNHC 302042
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023
 
...PHILIPPE STILL SHEARED AND MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 56.5W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was 
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 56.5 West. Philippe is 
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general 
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the 
west-northwest and northwest with an increase in forward speed is 
expected Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on 
Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Philippe could become a hurricane early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 30

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:42:13 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023


000
WTNT22 KNHC 302042
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 30 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  56.5W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE  15SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  56.5W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  56.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N  56.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.6N  57.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.4N  58.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N  58.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N  59.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.6N  59.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 25.7N  59.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N  56.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  56.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 17:21:42 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301721
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern
Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Rina, located over the
central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NHC Status Updates